Wednesday 2nd December, 12 noon -2pm: Georg Christ (History)

Zoom event – details – david.alderson@manchester.ac.uk

Around two key-thinkers, ´Abd ar-Rah’man Ibn Khaldûn (end of 14c.) and Joseph A. Tainer (end of 20c.), we shall rethink crisis not so much as a mistake, disease, or affliction but a phenomenon that naturally accompanies ‘retiring’ (Golstein), highly complex (Tainter), aging/senile (Ibn Khaldûn) nations/societies/dynasties. Is recovery even possible? It maybe but perhaps it will not be in the way we expect it. Tainter pointed out how an already complex societal system tends to respond to a crisis or problem by increasing complexity (i.e. if you think of our own institution, campus reopening groups, eLearning planning groups etc., proliferation of emails, websites, guidance, calendar changes, last minute policy changes etc…). Yet this problem response not only tends to be increasingly ineffective, it enhances complexity even further thus making the system more strained and sensitive to external shocks – the next crisis. Ibn Khaldûn is similarly sceptical about a ruler’s ability to stem the wave of crises through recovery policies. He admonishes the ruler to be just and to accept their fate if they happen to lead an aging dynastic state. What is the recovery then? For Ibn Khaldûn it is a new military, Bedouin dynasty emerging from the desert fringes of civilisation invading the state and starting the dynastic cycle of growth, maturing and decline afresh. Tainter seems to remain somewhat on the fence regarding recovery. What do we think? Might more pragmatic, bottom-up, decentralized/delegated approaches help to curb costs and enhance abilities to respond to and recover from crises.

If you would like to attend, please read the short essay by Joseph A. Tainter, ‘Energy, Complexity and Sustainability: A Historical Perspective’ (Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 1, no. 1 (2011): 89-95) in advance. You can find it easily via the library catalogue.

References

Tainter, Joseph A. The Collapse of Complex Societies. New studies in archaeology, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988.

Khaldûn, ^cAbd ar-Rah’mân Ibn. The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History. 3 vols. Edited by Franz Rosenthal.New York: Pantheon Books, 1958.

Goldstein, Joshua S. Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Period.New Haven (Conn.): Yale University Press, 1988.

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