{"id":3490,"date":"2022-10-24T15:39:59","date_gmt":"2022-10-24T14:39:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/?page_id=3490"},"modified":"2025-05-30T14:32:11","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T13:32:11","slug":"enduring-prevalence","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/research-themes\/sector-specific-studies\/enduring-prevalence\/","title":{"rendered":"Enduring prevalence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; admin_label=&#8221;section&#8221; fullwidth=&#8221;on&#8221; next_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; global_module=&#8221;322&#8243;][et_pb_fullwidth_menu global_parent=&#8221;322&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.106&#8243; menu_id=&#8221;7&#8243; submenu_direction=&#8221;downwards&#8221; fullwidth_menu=&#8221;off&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; module_class=&#8221;main-navigation&#8221; \/][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; module_class=&#8221;header-image-section&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.74&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;0px||0px|&#8221; custom_css_main_element=&#8221;padding-top:0px&#8221; transparent_background=&#8221;off&#8221; prev_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; next_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243;][et_pb_row custom_padding=&#8221;||0px|&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||0px|&#8221; parallax_method_1=&#8221;off&#8221; module_class=&#8221;header-image&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.47&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243;][et_pb_image admin_label=&#8221;Banner Image&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/276\/2021\/07\/connected-people.jpg&#8221; show_bottom_space=&#8221;off&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243; border_color_all=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;0px|||&#8221; animation_direction=&#8221;left&#8221; use_border_color=&#8221;off&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.74&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;||0px|&#8221; transparent_background=&#8221;off&#8221; prev_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; next_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243;][et_pb_row custom_padding=&#8221;||0px|&#8221; custom_margin=&#8221;||0px|&#8221; parallax_method_1=&#8221;off&#8221; module_class=&#8221;breadcrumbs-row&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.47&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243;][et_pb_text admin_label=&#8221;Breadcrumbs &#8211; do not delete&#8221; module_class=&#8221;breadcrumbs&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.10.1&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; module_alignment=&#8221;left&#8221; custom_css_main_element=&#8221;border-bottom: 1px solid #ececed;&#8221; use_border_color=&#8221;off&#8221;]<\/p>\n<span><span><a href=\"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/\">PROTECT COVID-19 National Core Study<\/a><\/span><\/span>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; use_custom_gutter=&#8221;on&#8221; gutter_width=&#8221;2&#8243; specialty=&#8221;on&#8221; parallax_method_1=&#8221;off&#8221; parallax_method_2=&#8221;off&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.74&#8243; transparent_background=&#8221;off&#8221; prev_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; next_background_color=&#8221;#1d1d1d&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;1_3&#8243;][et_pb_sidebar admin_label=&#8221;Left Nav Sidebar&#8221; area=&#8221;et_pb_widget_area_1&#8243; show_border=&#8221;off&#8221; module_id=&#8221;left-nav-menu&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.12.1&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_sidebar][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=&#8221;2_3&#8243; specialty_columns=&#8221;2&#8243;][et_pb_row_inner admin_label=&#8221;Row&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.47&#8243;][et_pb_column_inner type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; saved_specialty_column_type=&#8221;2_3&#8243;][et_pb_text admin_label=&#8221;Text: Enduring prevalence&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243;]<\/p>\n<h1>Enduring prevalence<\/h1>\n<p class=\"subHeading\">UK local authorities that experience sustained high levels of COVID-19 are termed areas of enduring prevalence (AEP) according to the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (2021). Researchers working on <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/research-themes\/sector-specific-studies\/\">Theme 3 of the PROTECT NCS<\/a><\/span> conducted a study in order to examine why some local authority areas have high, sustained levels of COVID-19 prevalence.<\/p>\n<p>The research team conducted interviews with Directors of Public Health (DsPH) in 19 local authority areas across England, between July and October 2021.\u00a0 Nine interviews were carried out in areas that had been identified by SAGE as AEP, and ten interviews were conducted in \u2018comparison areas\u2019 (CA).<\/p>\n<p>CAs were identified by DsPH, the Association of Directors of Public Health (ADPH) or Public Health England as being similar to the AEP, for example in terms of deprivation levels or population mix but had lower levels of COVID-19 prevalence.<\/p>\n<p>Data on a range of indicators including deprivation, ethnicity, overcrowded households, and factors related to employment was also collected for the local authority areas included in the research.<\/p>\n<p>Two reports were produced as part of the project. Report 1 considers <a href=\"https:\/\/documents.manchester.ac.uk\/display.aspx?DocID=62348\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">key drivers of COVID-19 prevalence<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and variations between local authority areas. The research suggests that health existing health inequalities influence the wider picture of prevalence rates of COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>Structural factors including deprivation, employment, and housing, converging with demographic factors including ethnicity and age, and vaccination rates, are key drivers of prevalence, and there are key differences in these drivers both within local authorities, and to a lesser extent, between AEP and CA.<\/p>\n<p>A second report discusses <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/documents.manchester.ac.uk\/display.aspx?DocID=62349\">mitigation strategies <\/a><\/span>that were implemented by DsPH during the course of the pandemic. Strategies implemented included local contact tracing, testing and vaccination efforts, isolation support, communication campaigns, engagement with communities, business, and education.<\/p>\n<p>No major differences between strategies used by DsPH in AEP and CA were found, and other than differences in structural indicators such as levels of deprivation, the research did not identify any major differences between AEP and CA in barriers and facilitators of COVID-19 control.<\/p>\n<p>Recommendations for future research include consultation with a wider range of stakeholders in order to provide a broader insight into the impact of, and interactions between, factors that had an impact on prevalence rates, along with further research to understand community needs, attitudes, and beliefs with regards to COVID-19 in order to tailor future messaging and mitigation efforts.<\/p>\n<p>Recommendations for future research also include further research on the experiences of employers and employees. This is being explored in the Phase 3 Greater Manchester Case Study project, which includes interviews with public health and environmental health teams, as well as online surveys for employers and employees, in order to examine changes in COVID-19 transmission risk, response and resilience in Greater Manchester workplaces during the course of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<h2>Dissemination<\/h2>\n<p>The research has been widely disseminated at a range of local, regional, national and international forums, conferences and events, including presentations to HSE and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and at conferences including the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/tinyurl.com\/2f3864h6\">PROTECT Conference <\/a><\/span>\u00a0and <a href=\"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/our-events\/protect-symposium-2022\/\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">Symposium<\/span><\/a>, as well as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.festivalofpublichealth.co.uk\/aboutthefestival\/\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">International Festival of Public Health<\/span><\/a>, Partnership for European Research in Occupational Safety and Health <a href=\"https:\/\/perosh.eu\/event\/wellbeing-at-work-2022\/\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">(PEROSH) Wellbeing At Work Conference 2022<\/span><\/a>, and the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jech.bmj.com\/content\/76\/Suppl_1\/A29.2\">Society for Social Medicine Annual Scientific Conference 2022<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Project Team<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.research.manchester.ac.uk\/portal\/chris.armitage.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chris Armitage<\/a><\/span>, The University of Manchester<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.research.manchester.ac.uk\/portal\/anna.j.coleman.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anna Coleman<\/a>,<\/span>\u00a0The University of Manchester<\/li>\n<li>David Fishwick,\u00a0Health and Safety Executive (HSE)<\/li>\n<li>Amit Gaokar, Rochdale Borough Council<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.research.manchester.ac.uk\/portal\/nicola.gartland.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nicola Gartland<\/a><\/span>,\u00a0The University of Manchester<\/li>\n<li>Angelique Hartwig,\u00a0The University of Manchester<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.research.manchester.ac.uk\/portal\/sheena.johnson.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sheena Johnson<\/a><\/span>,\u00a0The University of Manchester<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bcu.ac.uk\/social-sciences\/about-us\/staff\/psychology\/atiya-kamal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Atiya Kamal<\/a><\/span>, Birmingham City University<\/li>\n<li>Cath Lewis,\u00a0The University of Manchester<\/li>\n<li>Eleanor Roaf, Trafford Council<\/li>\n<li>Janet Ubido,\u00a0The University of Manchester<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.research.manchester.ac.uk\/portal\/martie.j.van-tongeren.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Martie van Tongeren<\/a><\/span>,\u00a0The University of Manchester<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_accordion admin_label=&#8221;Accordion: study documents&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243;][et_pb_accordion_item _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243; title=&#8221;Study Documents including publications&#8221;]<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s12889-023-15723-7\">Areas of enduring COVID-19 prevalence: drivers of prevalence and mitigating strategies.<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/documents.manchester.ac.uk\/display.aspx?DocID=62349\">Contributing factors and mitigation strategies for enduring COVID-19 prevalence: Report 2 \u2013 Barriers and facilitators to local strategies<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/documents.manchester.ac.uk\/display.aspx?DocID=62348\">Contributing factors and mitigation strategies for areas of enduring COVID-19 prevalence: Report 1 \u2013 Drivers and regional variations<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/jech.bmj.com\/content\/76\/Suppl_1\/A29.2\">OP61\u2005Areas of Covid-19 prevalence: drivers of prevalence and mitigating strategies<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/et_pb_accordion_item][\/et_pb_accordion][\/et_pb_column_inner][\/et_pb_row_inner][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; 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Researchers working on Theme 3 of the PROTECT NCS conducted a study in order to examine why some local authority areas have high, sustained levels of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4299,"featured_media":0,"parent":1555,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-3490","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4299"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3490"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4238,"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3490\/revisions\/4238"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1555"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.manchester.ac.uk\/covid19-national-project\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}