Urban Futures 

Urban Futures Forum 2025

Manchester Urban Institute, Future-wise theme:  co-hosted by PPEM Seminar program

Wednesday 9 July 2025 | 13:00pm – 2:30pm | Humanities Bridgeford Street 1.69/70 |hybrid |lunch from 1230  

Guest Speaker: Professor Kai Zhou, University of Hunan: ‘Urban Shrinkage in China: Theoretical Models, International Comparisons and Key Planning Issues

Here we look at the urban shrinkage challenge as an essential part of the dynamic ‘panarchy’ cycle of growth decline and regeneration (https://www.resalliance.org/panarchy)

We invite participants to bring a contribution – a couple of slides etc – on their ideas / applications on such urban futures issues. We can then apply a systems dynamics mapping approach, and explore further inter-connections and insights, with the aid of a simple online knowledge mapping platform. 

Program includes: 

• Introductions
• Kai Zhou, University of Hunan: ‘Urban Shrinkage in China‘
• Joe Ravetz, University of Manchester: ‘Urban futures & the panarchy cycle of change’
• Round table review & mapping of urban future methodologies

 The session is hybrid, and we use online knowledge mapping (Mural / Padlet), along with paper in the room.

Join the meeting now [teams.microsoft.com]

Meeting ID: 363 837 024 813 3

Passcode: 3bJ389oV

Context 

The ‘Urban Futures’ agenda is moving fast…

• Accelerating ‘urban whiplash’ of extreme heat / fire and storm / flood
• ‘New world disorder’ driven by predatory trade wars, new imperialism, politics of division and extremism
• Likely urban impacts in the global south – huge industrial areas suddenly redundant, regional economies insolvent, mass migration, roll-back of climate resilience…

Here the City-wise theme & program aims to explore such challenges with a systems approach – mapping multiple layers and inter-connections to explore potential pathways. The focal point is the dynamic ‘infinity loop’ of growth / decline / renewal:

• Typically, we see rampant urban growth, leading to unstable climax condition, which collapses into decline or disaster, with a regeneration phase then amplifying all the negative syndromes – displacement, commodification, expropriation, exclusion…
• There are alternatives at each stage to be explored – integrated development, collaborative governance, adaptive resilience, etc. – each mobilized by some form of ‘collective urban intelligence.

From another viewpoint…. we see the urban-economic challenge as a ‘nexus’, with multiple systems and their combinations all in flux – social, technology, economic, environmental, cultural and governance. Given the complexity and uncertainty of such a nexus, there are no objective models or forecasts – but we can explore potential pathways towards a positive ‘connexus’, where synergies between the various systems can lead towards positive transformation.  Materials – chapter for ‘City Economies in the Global South: Growth, Inclusion and Sustainability’ (2026, Routledge) – City Economy – from Nexus to Connexus 

General materials – see extract on Deeper City – 4-8 – City-wise dynamics & pathways