Foresight 3.0 east-west program

with the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development (CASTED): 

V3– 05-09-24

The Chinese agency ‘CASTED’ (Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development) is active in foresight applications for science / technology / innovation policy (STI).  CASTED was also involved in the Foresight 3.0 development program, first launched at the UNESCO 2021 Futures Literacy conference.

A delegation from CASTED is visiting the EU and UK, to learn and exchange on the Foresight 3.0 methods and tools, with a view to future applications in China and beyond. A series of meetings is planned on Sept 25^th & 27^th with interested organizations.

Below are outline notes on the scope and aims of each meeting.

 

1) S.T.I. futures in east & west:  foresight 3.0 & ‘collective strategic intelligence’

25th September, 1-2.30 pm

Location:  University of Manchester AMBS  9.041 (hosted by https://www.mioir.manchester.ac.uk/ )

The Chinese & UK experience of foresight policy & practice, while addressing the same STI challenges, is contextualized with very different socio-political systems.

Here we compare the emerging methods of ‘Foresight 3.0’ and the ‘collective strategic intelligence’, as a practical approach for STI pathway & road-mapping, in east and west.

• Co-chairs: Joe Ravetz & Ian Miles

Guest speakers from the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development (http://en.casted.org.cn/)

• Guo Rong, Vice President,
• Yuan Like, Senior Researcher 

Also: we aim to launch the new Special Issue on the same theme in the Foresight journal.

 

2)    Urban Futures east-west forum

25th September, 4-6pm, hosted by https://www.mui.manchester.ac.uk/  

Location:  UOM Humanities Bridgford St, 1.69

This follows on the Manchester Urban Institute midsummer forum on ‘advice to the next government’. Here we explored ‘strategic research- policy pathways’ for the next 10 years and beyond: where the Manchester city-region is a showpiece for urban research-policy innovation. 

This session starts with an international UK / China comparison & dialogue on the selected ‘pathways’:

We then follow the interactive Foresight 3.0 mapping process around the cycle: actors / factors: alternative futures: visions & transformations:  and road-mapping for action.

There is a special focus on emerging technology (AI, smart, nano, robotics etc) and its role in the city

The result aims for next level ‘strategic research- policy pathways’, ready for funding proposals, network building, and policy dialogue.

Audience includes MUI wider network of academics and urban / regional stakeholders.  

Registration & updates – https://www.eventbrite.com/e/urban-futures-east-west-forum-tickets-1008308787727?aff=oddtdtcreator

 

3) ‘Foresight 3.0 – east-west transformational futures’:

An east-west meeting of minds with CASTED (Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development):

London 27^th Sept, 1.30, location Friends House)  (places limited, contact joe.ravetz@manchester.ac.uk

Speakers:

• Joe Ravetz, Director of the Mind-Lab, Lead Future Cities for Manchester Urban Institute
• Sharaad Sharma, UK Government Office of Science Foresight Unit
• Guo Rong, Vice President, CASTED
• Huw Williams, Principal, SAMI Consulting
• Yuan Like, Senior Researcher, CASTED 

 

General aims                                                                                   

• Compare the Chinese & UK experience of foresight policy & practice
• Explore / demonstrate Foresight 3.0 theory and practice
• Explore / demonstrate applications to UK policy applications
• Explore future collaboration with the China-UK foresight / futures community.

 

Stakeholder organizations include:

• SAMI Consulting network
• ICL foresight unit
• Oxford Scenarios Program
• Society of International Futures
• Association of Futures Practitioners
• EU Foresight Unit
• UNESCO foresight networks

 

Background – ‘Foresight 3.0’

 

The Foresight 3.0 methods and tools has emerged since the 2000s, from experience of foresight applications and capacity building in many countries.  The wider Synergistic ‘Foresight-wise’ theme was first publicly launched at the 2001 UNESCO summit on futures literacy. A series of international dialogues then led to a Special Issue in Foresight (near complete), and a large scale demonstration for UNIDO in Ukraine, as on http://www.recpc.org/circular-economy/

The rationale behind this is the synergistic method and Pathways Toolkit for mobilizing the collective intelligence and co-evolution of human systems – social, technological, economic, ecological, political, cultural, etc (Ravetz 2020: Ravetz and Miles 2016).

Why Foresight 3.0  (‘FS3’)? – what is it & how to do it? Broadly…

• Foresight emerged as a practice of inter-connections – present / future:  external / internal change etc.  ( myself I worked with this for several decades)
• But now the scale of current challenges has moved on: e.g. multiple ‘post-truths’: existential risks of climate change etc: extreme globalization: systems transformation, etc.
• So there is an opportunity where Foresight theory and practice can move forward – we frame this as Foresight 3.0…
• Basically this is foresight with the added dimension of a ‘collective foresight intelligence’, in the community of practitioners, and in the surrounding society.

 

This agenda can be summed in three dimensions –

• Wider community of stakeholders, beyond the elites / experts
• Deeper layers of value and meaning, beyond the material
• Further horizons of transformation, beyond ‘problem fixing’

 

Foresight 3.0 is then a double track agenda:

3. Foresight produced by: a ‘3.0’ system of ‘collective anticipatory intelligence’ (information, analysis, deliberation, co-production) within the FS3 team;
4. Foresight produced for, by, with: a ‘3.0’ system of ‘collective anticipatory intelligence’, and the transformations leading towards it. This includes mutual communication, learning, innovation, co-production, between a wider stakeholder community, with deeper layers of value & meaning). 

 

As to what is a ‘collective anticipatory intelligence’:  the framework of ‘co-evolution’ with its 3 ‘modes’ is a useful guide (see the ‘summary & self-assessment’ in Table 1):

• Foresight 1.0: a functional / technical framing of direct problems and solutions: (generally includes embedded assumptions).
• Foresight 2.0: an evolutionary framing of problems & solutions, in terms of competition, incentives, innovations, ‘winner takes all’ mindset.
• Foresight 3.0: a co-evolutionary framing of problems & solutions: in terms of the synergies & opportunities from mutual communication, co-learning, co-innovation, co-production: between a wider stakeholder community, deeper layers of value, and further

 

Table 1: Foresight-3.0 – summary & self-assessment

	Foresight 1.0 Linear	Foresight 2.0  Evolutionary	Foresight 3.0 Co-evolutionary
	‘CLEVER’: complex	‘SMART’: emergent complexity	‘WISE’: deeper complexity
WIDER: (actors & factors)	Elite/experts with top-down programme	Elite/experts with open enterprise	Participative co-learning & co-production
DEEPER: (social, technical etc)	Technical & functional analysis	Multi-functional analysis	Multi-dimension, multi-valent, analysis- synthesis
FURTHER: innovation/transition	Problem-solving foresight: for technical innovation	Opportunity-seeking entrepreneurial innovation	Agenda setting foresight & transformative innovation
CIRCULAR: (cognitive process)
Relational thinking: ‘communication’	Tangible system mapping	Systems of incentives, competition, enterprise	Cognitive capital & connexus mapping
Divergent thinking: ‘co-learning’	Tangible trends / scenarios	Evolutionary trends/scenarios	Alternative futures & synergistic potential
Emergent thinking:  ‘co-creation’	Specific problem-solving	Innovation & problem insight	Societal co-design & co-innovation
Convergent thinking: ‘co-production’	Specific actions/responses	Enterprise strategy & road-mapping	Societal transformation pathways