Foresight 3.0 China-UK

2025 program 

Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development (CASTED):

University of Manchester: UK Government Office of Science: SAMI Consulting

The China-UK foresight 3.0 exchange program enters a second phase, on site in Beijing: including – 

• CASTED http://en.casted.org.cn/ seminar, Nov 7^th morning. Themes include – Foresight 3.0 and the FOCI (Future-oriented collective intelligence): Chinese experience in technology foresight: Development of UNESCO Category II Centres: future urban development (with Prof. Zhou Kai, Hunan University)
• CASISD http://english.casisd.cn/ lecture by Joe Ravetz, Nov 7^th afternoon. Topics include: Foresight 3.0 and FOCI (Future-oriented collective intelligence): Foresight-CHAI (‘collective human-artificial intelligence’).
• Beijing University of Technology, National STI Centre – https://en.ncsti.gov.cn/ – lecture / seminar by Joe Ravetz on Foresight 3.0 with applications to ‘collective STI intelligence’.
• CISTRAT http://cistrat.casted.org.cn/ – training program, Nov 13-14^th 

For more see the China-UK foresight 3.0 program

Program aims – generally, to follow up the CASTED visit to UK & EU in 2024, and share recent developments.  This includes:

1. Foresight 3.0 – (FOCI – ‘future-oriented collective intelligence’) – exchange & mutual learning on theory & practice: both internal to the foresight process, and external in society around.
2. Foresight-CHAI (‘collective human-artificial intelligence’) – exchange & mutual learning on how foresight with AI tools can enhance the ‘collective human intelligence’,
3. Futures Toolkit, as developed for UK Government Office of Science by SAMI consulting – informal ideas on development for Chinese applications.
4. FOCI special issue: develop material for research & publication program via Foresight Journal
5. Develop research collaborations on these, i.e.

• International / sectoral foresight projects
• Training and capacity building
• Other scientific exchange and networks (see Section 4 for longer list).

Organizations involved: 

• CASTED & Think Tank office
• CISTRAT
• CASISD
• Beijing University of Technology
• National S&T Innovation Hub
• ACCA21

Foresight 3.0 China-UK program 2024

Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development (CASTED):

University of Manchester: UK Government Office of Science: SAMI Consulting

The Chinese agency ‘CASTED’ (Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development) is active in foresight applications for science / technology / innovation policy (STI).  CASTED was also involved in the Foresight 3.0 development program, first launched at the UNESCO 2021 Futures Literacy conference.

A delegation from CASTED is visiting the EU and UK, to learn and exchange on the Foresight 3.0 methods and tools, with a view to future applications in China and beyond. A series of meetings is planned on Sept 25^th & 27^th with interested organizations.

Below are outline notes on the scope and aims of each meeting.

1) S.T.I. futures in east & west:  foresight 3.0 & ‘collective strategic intelligence’

25th September, 1-2.30 pm

Location:  University of Manchester AMBS  9.041 (hosted by https://www.mioir.manchester.ac.uk/ )

The Chinese & UK experience of foresight policy & practice, while addressing the same STI challenges, is contextualized with very different socio-political systems.

Here we compare the emerging methods of ‘Foresight 3.0’ and the ‘collective strategic intelligence’, as a practical approach for STI pathway & road-mapping, in east and west.

Also: we aim to launch the new Special Issue on the same theme in the Foresight journal.

2)    Urban Futures east-west forum

25th September, 4-6pm, hosted by https://www.mui.manchester.ac.uk/  

This follows on the Manchester Urban Institute midsummer forum on ‘advice to the next government’. Here we explored ‘strategic research- policy pathways’ for the next 10 years and beyond: where the Manchester city-region is a showpiece for urban research-policy innovation. 

This session starts with an international UK / China comparison & dialogue on the selected ‘pathways’:

We then follow the interactive Foresight 3.0 mapping process around the cycle: actors / factors: alternative futures: visions & transformations:  and road-mapping for action.

There is a special focus on emerging technology (AI, smart, nano, robotics etc) and its role in the city

The result aims for next level ‘strategic research- policy pathways’, ready for funding proposals, network building, and policy dialogue.

Audience includes MUI wider network of academics and urban / regional stakeholders.  

Registration & updates – https://www.eventbrite.com/e/urban-futures-east-west-forum-tickets-1008308787727?aff=oddtdtcreator

3) ‘Foresight 3.0 – east-west transformational futures’:

An east-west meeting of minds with CASTED (Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development):

London 27^th Sept, 1.30, location Friends House)  (places limited, contact joe.ravetz@manchester.ac.uk

General aims                                                                                   

• Compare the Chinese & UK experience of foresight policy & practice
• Explore / demonstrate Foresight 3.0 theory and practice
• Explore / demonstrate applications to UK policy applications
• Explore future collaboration with the China-UK foresight / futures community.

Stakeholder organizations include:

• SAMI Consulting network
• ICL foresight unit
• Oxford Scenarios Program
• Society of International Futures
• Association of Futures Practitioners
• EU Foresight Unit
• UNESCO foresight networks

Background – ‘Foresight 3.0’

The Foresight 3.0 methods and tools has emerged since the 2000s, from experience of foresight applications and capacity building in many countries.  The wider Synergistic ‘Foresight-wise’ theme was first publicly launched at the 2001 UNESCO summit on futures literacy. A series of international dialogues then led to a Special Issue in Foresight (near complete), and a large scale demonstration for UNIDO in Ukraine, as on http://www.recpc.org/circular-economy/

The rationale behind this is the synergistic method and Pathways Toolkit for mobilizing the collective intelligence and co-evolution of human systems – social, technological, economic, ecological, political, cultural, etc (Ravetz 2020: Ravetz and Miles 2016).

Why Foresight 3.0  (‘FS3’)? – what is it & how to do it? Broadly…

• Foresight emerged as a practice of inter-connections – present / future:  external / internal change etc.  ( myself I worked with this for several decades)
• But now the scale of current challenges has moved on: e.g. multiple ‘post-truths’: existential risks of climate change etc: extreme globalization: systems transformation, etc.
• So there is an opportunity where Foresight theory and practice can move forward – we frame this as Foresight 3.0…
• Basically this is foresight with the added dimension of a ‘collective foresight intelligence’, in the community of practitioners, and in the surrounding society.

This agenda can be summed in three dimensions –

• Wider community of stakeholders, beyond the elites / experts
• Deeper layers of value and meaning, beyond the material
• Further horizons of transformation, beyond ‘problem fixing’

Foresight 3.0 is then a double track agenda:

3. Foresight produced by: a ‘3.0’ system of ‘collective anticipatory intelligence’ (information, analysis, deliberation, co-production) within the FS3 team;
4. Foresight produced for, by, with: a ‘3.0’ system of ‘collective anticipatory intelligence’, and the transformations leading towards it. This includes mutual communication, learning, innovation, co-production, between a wider stakeholder community, with deeper layers of value & meaning). 

As to what is a ‘collective anticipatory intelligence’:  the framework of ‘co-evolution’ with its 3 ‘modes’ is a useful guide (see the ‘summary & self-assessment’ in Table 1):

• Foresight 1.0: a functional / technical framing of direct problems and solutions: (generally includes embedded assumptions).
• Foresight 2.0: an evolutionary framing of problems & solutions, in terms of competition, incentives, innovations, ‘winner takes all’ mindset.
• Foresight 3.0: a co-evolutionary framing of problems & solutions: in terms of the synergies & opportunities from mutual communication, co-learning, co-innovation, co-production: between a wider stakeholder community, deeper layers of value, and further

Table 1: Foresight-3.0 – summary & self-assessment