GM2050
Greater Manchester strategic foresight 2050
concept proposal for discussion
Context
GM is a leader in UK devo policy – a poster case for a positive combination – strategic location, STI / education, sports, culture, economic diversity, political leadership etc. But beyond GM there are storm clouds or possible tipping points on the horizon –e.g. –
– Extremist politics are on the rise & could be a gamechanger at the next election (e.g. USA experience);
– AI could take out much of the current service / consumer economy, (alongside much mental health);
– Cyber-attack / cyber-crime could take out much of our everyday infrastructure (state or non-state directed);
– Climate change could amplify risks into tipping points, both direct (flood, heat) & indirect effects (food, energy, migration etc).
The previous version – ‘GM2040’ – was launched in 2016 with the UK Foresight on Future of Cities – see
– Foresight in cities: on the possibility of a “strategic urban intelligence”,
As of spring 2026 this is a concept proposal for discussion – (full paper available on request).
Challenges & questions
a) Shorter term (5 years) – how to ensure the GM strategy can succeed under pressure, and is resilient to such ‘storm clouds’?
b) Longer term (25 years) – how to learn from the GM strategy, lessons for other city-regions in UK / EU / beyond?
The challenge is then, to develop, test and apply better ways of mobilizing the future-oriented collective intelligence’ (FOCI), to address these profound challenges…
GM2020 concept
The concept is to ‘raise the game’ of city-region development policy (in the wider sense) – applying new methods & tools from UK / EU / beyond – to mobilize the ‘future-oriented collective intelligence’ (FOCI) as a means to progress – social, technological, economic, environmental, political. The main aims include: –
1) Overall, to provide advice & insight to GM strategy & similar policy programs around the UK and beyond;
2) Mobilize the ‘future-oriented collective intelligence’ with a wider stakeholder community, deeper layers of value & further horizons of change;
3) Develop & test methods & tools, which link the potential of AI / big data, with new social processes, deliberative, co-creative, participative;
4) Explore systematically key themes & challenge areas for the GM strategy (e.g. net-zero, circular economy, productivity gaps, new finance, future of skills, social enterprise, health futures, local democracy…).
GM2050 basic approach
The basic approach is framed as ‘foresight’, and the recent developments of ‘Foresight 3.0’ and ‘co-futuring with AI’.
– ‘Foresight’ is a set of methods & tools for such challenges – mapping the challenges & opportunities, exploring possible futures, applying insights into action; (see UK govt links below)
– ‘Foresight 3.0’ or ‘FOCI’ (‘future-oriented collective intelligence’) takes foresight into real-world systems transformation. It works with a wider community of interest (beyond the elite / experts), with deeper layers of value (beyond the material), to mobilize the collective intelligence in social, technology, economic & political systems.
– ‘Co-futuring’ is now emerging to mobilize the huge potential of AI in the growing practice of foresight & strategic planning, for public / business / civic agendas.
GM2050 – wider & deeper horizons
following the principles of foresight 3.0 we look for wider & deeper ways to mobilize the ‘future-oriented collective intelligence’ – with GM as the ideal pilot demo case. Here are some options for discussion …
– ‘visioneering’ – “a journey of a thousand miles begins, not only with the first step, but with a vision that such a journey is possible” – using interactive visual thinking to explore such visions, accessing the subconscous, psycho-cultural and mythological layers (see www.urban3.net)
– ‘collaboratorium’ – bringing together the multiple helix – business, policy, civil society, creative / cultural, research/innovation – to generate the future-oriented collective intelligence for synergistic deliberation on topical challenges
– ‘exploratorium’ – mobilizing new approaches for installations / experiential / participatory / interactive environments, to explore future challenges & opportunities
– ‘serious games’ – roleplays for a near future ‘doom-loop’ scenarios – apocalyptic AI domination / climate crisis / dictatorship: the general aim is a) to survive, (b) create a new game which makes the old one obsolete…
Overall …. this is not only to provide Manchester / GM with a unique resource, but to demo to others locally & globally that the power to create the future is ours…
(Graphics (c) JRA: sources –
- ‘Deeper City: collective intelligence & the pathways from smart to wise’
- GM2040 workshops 2015
