Theme 2: Transmission modelling

Theme 2 is applying a range of cutting-edge modelling and experimental approaches to address the key research questions of the PROTECT study on how the physical environment and human behaviour affect transmission of the COVID-19 virus, how best to control it, and what it really means to be ‘COVID secure’.

The mathematical models being developed simulate, at one end of the scale, how microscopic virus particles physically move and spread, and at the other, how much transmission and infection is likely to occur in different buildings, workplaces, and localities, with and without different control measures.

In order to make these calculations, the models draw on data from experiments on how the virus is emitted, survives, and is transmitted – via surfaces, person-to person and in the air – as well as studies of how buildings work and the way people behave and interact within them. This data is collected within Theme 2 itself, as well as being fed in from the other PROTECT research themes.

Theme team

Theme lead: Professor Cath Noakes, University of Leeds

Other partners:

  • Health and Safety Executive
  • UK Health Security Agency
  • Defence Science and Technology Laboratory
  • Institute of Occupational Medicine
  • Imperial College London
  • University of Manchester
  • University of Leicester
  • University of Cambridge
  • University of Strathclyde

Theme 2 projects

Find out more about individual research projects taking place within the transmission modelling theme.



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