British media almost unanimously announced 2024 as the year of “the first TikTok election”. Is it really the social media platform that will determine the vote?

Observing the political parties’ attempts to reach voters on TikTok, we may recall the ancient Greek ineffability paradox. Its author, Gorgias, proposed the following trilemma: 1) nothing exists; 2) even if something exists, it cannot be known; 3) even if it could be known, it cannot be communicated and understood. The sophist’s sceptical reflection on the inability to communicate meaningfully is surprisingly timely.

The decision of the parties to join TikTok only now means that their existence there is difficult to prove. TikTok does not allow political advertising, so the parties are unable to target voters and may only count on the platform’s algorithm to amplify their communication attempts.

Examining these attempts, we might be struck by the odd mixture of an archaic approach to advertising with even stranger efforts to appeal to Gen Z voters, who apparently can only understand memes.

Let’s start with the Labour Party. A long, old-school ad asking viewers if they feel better off than 14 years ago is not the smartest idea: over 40% of UK TikTok users are 18-24 years old. But using memes might not be any smarter. One video depicts Rishi Sunak as an RPG character Auramancer, warning users: “-999999 aura if you don’t send this”. The response? “Do they realise the people they are appealing to can’t vote yet?” asks one user. For Labour, winning TikTok might prove more difficult than winning the election.

Their most popular video, on Sunak’s pledge on mandatory national service, used the oft-memed “Surprise, Surprise” song and got over 700K likes. But even if it was liked by millions, it is almost impossible to predict how that would translate into votes.

Maybe then the Conservatives are doing better, with almost-Millennial Rishi Sunak? The Prime Minister has been starring in almost half of the party’s videos. The one in which he announced the national service policy was played over 3.5M times. But it does not translate into nearly as many likes, indicating the message was not received as it was intended.

Does Gorgias’ paradox still hold then and the TikTok communication is futile? Looking at the numbers, the parties’ existence on the platform is negligible and their message may have very limited influence on the young people’s vote. It is not just because the parties are late to the TikTok game and thus unable to build an authentic presence there. (Incidentally, many top comments on Labour’s profile come from the supporters of Reform UK, which joined the platform last year).

The reason is simpler and non-digital. The results of the 2024 election will not be decided by algorithms and memes because they have been decided by the state of the country, its economy, and the dynamic of the contest between the two biggest parties in post-austerity, post-Brexit, post-Covid Britain.

It does not mean that Gorgias was entirely right, and digital communication is of no importance. Political campaigning in the UK and elsewhere has been moving online, simply because that’s where the voters are. It is vital to investigate the impact of the new digital tools – all of them, not just one platform – on politics. But always with a healthy dose of old-fashioned scepticism.

The views and perspectives expressed in this post are solely those of the author.

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