Outputs

by | Apr 2, 2024 |

Publications

Citizens' acceptance of data-driven political campaigning: a 25-country cross-national vignette study

Vliegenthart, R., Vrielink, J., Dommett, K., Gibson, R., Bon, E., Chu, X., de Vreese, C., Lecheler, S., Matthes, J., Minihold, S., Otto, L., Stubenvoll, M., & Kruikemeier, S. (2024). Citizens’ Acceptance of Data-Driven Political Campaigning: A 25-Country Cross-National Vignette Study. Social Science Computer Review, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/08944393241249708

Abstract

This paper investigates how the acceptance of data-driven political campaigning depends on four different message characteristics. A vignette study was conducted in 25 countries with a total of 14,390 respondents who all evaluated multiple descriptions of political advertisements. Relying on multi-level models, we find that in particular the source and the issue of the message matters. Messages that are sent by a party the respondent likes and deal with a political issue the respondent considers important are rated more acceptable. Furthermore, targeting based on general characteristics instead of individual ones is considered more acceptable, as is a general call to participate in the upcoming elections instead of a specific call to vote for a certain party. Effects differ across regulatory contexts, with the negative impact of both individual targeting and a specific call to vote for a certain party being in countries that have higher levels of legislative regulation.

 

"I always feel like somebody's watching me": What do the U.S. Electorate know about political micro-targeting and how much do they care?

Gibson, R., Bon, E., & Dommett, K. (2024). “I always feel like somebody’s watching me”: What do the U.S. electorate know about political micro-targeting and how much do they care?. Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media, 4. https://doi.org/10.51685/jqd.2024.001

Abstract

The practice of political micro-targeting (PMT) – tailoring messages for voters based on their personal data – has increased over the past two decades, particularly in the U.S. Studies of PMT have to date concentrated largely on its effects on voters, or its implications for democracy more broadly. Less attention has been given to answering basic descriptive questions about how people perceive, feel and care about this new mode of political communication. This paper fills that gap by reporting findings from an online survey (weighted to be nationally representative on age, gender, ethnicity, region and past vote) that measured public attitudes toward PMT during the 2020 U.S. Presidential campaign. Specifically, we measure voter orientations toward PMT in four key dimensions – awareness, aversion, knowledge, and acceptability at the aggregate level – and explore how these vary according to a range of individual characteristics. Key findings are that public understanding and acceptance of PMT may be higher than current studies indicate, particularly among certain sectors of the population. Such insights are important for academic research to cognize and also policy-makers, as they move toward greater regulation of voter targeting.

Are Online Political Influencers Accelerating Democratic Deconsolidation? Comparing the Role of Established and New Campaign Actors in the U.S. 2020 Presidential Election.

Gibson, R., Bon, E., Darius, P., & Smyth, P. (2023). Are Online Political Influencers Accelerating Democratic Deconsolidation?. Media and Communication, 11(3), 175-186. https://doi.org/10.17645/mac.v11i3.6813

Abstract

Social media campaigning is increasingly linked with anti-democratic outcomes, with concerns to date centring on paid adverts, rather than organic content produced by a new set of online political influencers. This study systematically compares voter exposure to these new campaign actors with candidate-sponsored ads, as well as established and alternative news sources during the US 2020 presidential election. Specifically, we examine how far higher exposure to these sources is linked with key trends identified in the democratic deconsolidation thesis. We use data from a national YouGov survey designed to measure digital campaign exposure to test our hypotheses. Findings show that while higher exposure to online political influencers is linked to more extremist opinions, followers are not disengaging from conventional politics. Exposure to paid political ads, however, is confirmed as a potential source of growing distrust in political institutions.

 

Operationalising Data-Driven Campaigning: Designing a New Tool for Mapping and Guiding Regulatory Intervention.

Gibson, R., Bon, E., & Römmele, A. (2023). Operationalizing data-driven campaigning: designing a new tool for mapping and guiding regulatory intervention. Policy Studies, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2023.2259333

Abstract

Since the Cambridge Analytica scandal, governments are increasingly concerned about the way in which citizens’ personal data are collected, processed and used during election campaigns To develop the appropriate tools for monitoring and controlling this new mode of “data-driven campaigning” (DDC) regulators require a clear understanding of the practices involved. This paper provides a first step toward that goal by proposing a new organizational and process-centred operational definition of DDC from which we derive a set of empirical indicators. The indicators are applied to the policy environment of a leading government in this domain – the European Union (EU) – to generate a descriptive “heat map” of current regulatory activity toward DDC. Based on the results of this exercise, we argue that regulation is likely to intensify on existing practices and extend to cover current “cold spots”. Drawing on models of internet governance, we argue that this expansion is likely to occur in one of two ways. A “kaleidoscopic” approach, in which current legislation extends to absorb DDC practices and a more “designed” approach that involves more active intervention by elites, and ultimately the generation of a new regulatory regime.

Are certain types of microtargeting more acceptable? Comparing US, German and Dutch citizens’ attitudes

Bon, Esmeralda, Dommett, Kate, Gibson, Rachel, Kruikemeier, Sanne & Lecheler, Sophie. (2024). Are Certain Types of Microtargeting More Acceptable? Comparing US, German, and Dutch Citizens’ Attitudes. Media and Communication, 12. https://doi.org/10.17645/mac.8520

Abstract

Much of the research on political microtargeting has focused on growing public concerns about its use in elections, fuelling calls for greater regulation or even a ban of the practice. We contend that a more nuanced understanding of public attitudes toward microtargeting is required before further regulation is considered. Drawing on advertising psychology research and the results of academic analyses into microtargeting, we argue that individual concern, and by corollary, acceptance of microtargeting will vary based on their socio-demographic characteristics and political orientations, and the type of personal data used. We hypothesise that microtargeting that relies on observable or publicly accessible personal information will be more accepted by voters than that which uses unobserved and inferred traits. We test these expectations and the expected variance of public acceptance by individual characteristics using comparative survey data from the US, Germany and the Netherlands. We find that across countries and socio-demographic groups, not all microtargeting is considered equally problematic. For example, whereas the use of age and gender  is generally deemed acceptable, the use of sexual orientation is not, and right-leaning individuals are more accepting than those who lean left. Additionally, overall, the US is more accepting of microtargeting than Germany or the Netherlands. Thus, we find that not all microtargeting is considered equally problematic across countries and socio-demographic groups. We conclude by calling for a more contextualised debate about the benefits and costs of political microtargeting and its use of ‘sensitive’ data before the expansion of current regulation.

Data-Driven Campaigning as a Disruptive Force

Gibson, R. (2023). Data-Driven Campaigning as a Disruptive Force. Political Communication, 40(3),351-355.https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2023.2207486

Introduction

Concern about whether contemporary societies face a “crisis of democracy” has grown in recent years (Kreisi, 2020). While the severity of the malaise may be disputed, there is growing suspicion that the increasing reliance of political actors on digital technology
and particularly new “data driven” campaign techniques may be contributing to growth in citizen disengagement and discontent (Bennett & Lyon, 2019). The grounds for this claim are essentially three-fold. First, data-driven campaigns promote a more individualized form of political targeting that allows parties to narrow their appeals to the most persuadable and “perceived” sections of the electorate (Hersh, 2015), and thereby effectively bypass those harder to reach groups of under-mobilized voters, i.e. the young, the disinterested, and the marginalized. Furthermore, through these microtargeting techniques, campaigners can more accurately target demobilizing messages at
opposition supporters to dissuade them from turning out. Second, social media platforms provide powerful new channels for the release of automated, anonymized, false information or “computational propaganda” by rogue actors, both foreign and domestic. These disinformation campaigns are explicitly designed to mislead and confuse voters and are escalating in scale and sophistication (Woolley & Howard, 2018). Finally, campaigns themselves are now increasingly reliant on the “wisdom” of AI and computer modeling for basic tasks such as resource allocation and message construction. This shift creates a new technological elite at the heart of campaigns that operate in an opaque and unaccountable manner (Tufekci, 2014). The combined impact of these developments is a further shrinking of the public sphere and decline in the representativeness and accountability of democratic institutions. Voters who do actually make it the polls face the increasingly difficult task of making an informed choice, as they struggle to discern both the accuracy and source of the political
content they encounter online.

Given the potentially serious harms that DDC presents to democracy, systematic investigation of its adoption and usage across countries is now a priority for academic research. This is precisely the goal of a new ERC funded project, Digital Campaigning and Electoral
Democracy (DiCED). In this short essay we highlight in brief, the key questions the project will pursue and that we urge the wider literature to explore.

(Forthcoming) Editorial: Data-Driven Campaigning in a Comparative Context: Toward a 4th Era of Political Communication?

Luke, S, Bon, E, Dommett, K., Gibson, R., Kruikemeier, S., & Lecheler, S. (2024). Editorial: Data-Driven Campaigning in a Comparative Context: Toward a 4th Era of Political Communication? Media and Communication, 12. https://doi.org/10.17645/mac.9227

Abstract

Contemporary political campaigning takes place both online and offline, and can be data-driven. In this piece, we review existing knowledge around data-driven campaigning (DDC) and introduce the new contributions made by the pieces within this special issue. We reveal how the studies included in this thematic issue of Media and Communication contribute to this existing knowledge by providing an up-to-date account of how DDC in general, and political microtargeting in specific, have been employed in election campaigns between 2021 and 2023, in a range of countries: France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United States.  As a collection, these studies highlight the variance that exists in the degree to which DDC is practiced, the range of DDC tools used and attitudes toward DDC. In recent election campaigns, DDC takes many forms, and disapproval of DDC varies depending on how it is implemented.

Just what is data-driven campaigning? A systematic review

Dommett, K., Barclay, A., & Gibson, R. (2023). Just what is data-driven campaigning? A systematic review. Information, Communication & Society, 27(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2023.2166794

Abstract

Discussions of data-driven campaigning have gained increased prominence in recent years. Often associated with the practices of Cambridge Analytica and linked to debates about the health of modern democracy, scholars have devoted considerable attention to the rise of data-driven politics. However, most studies to date have focused solely on practice in the US, and few scholars have made efforts to define the precise meaning of ‘data-driven campaigning’. With growing recognition that data-driven campaigning can take different forms dependent on context and available resource, new questions have emerged as to exactly what features are indicative of this phenomena. In this piece, we systematically review existing discussions of data-driven campaigning to unpack the components of this idea. Identifying areas of convergence and divergence in existing discussions of ‘data’, ‘driven’, and ‘campaigning’, we classify existing debate to highlight integral features and variable practices. This article accordingly provides the first comprehensive definition of data-driven campaigning, and aims to facilitate international study of this activity

Working and conference papers

What drives data-driven campaigning (DDC)? A comparative analysis of the institutional and organizational factors shaping the adoption of DDC in the French and German party systems.

 

Bon, Esmeralda; Darius, Philipp; Gibson, Rachel, Gibson; Greffet, Fabienne and Andrea Rommele

Abstract

This paper analyses the adoption of data-driven campaigning (DDC) by German and French parties in recent national elections by investigating three main research questions: (1) do countries and parties vary in the extent to which DDC is practised? (2) if so, what explains those differences? and (3) are certain DDC techniques more or less prominent due to EU and national regulatory frameworks? We hypothesise the impact of a range of institutional (macro-level) and organisational (meso-level) factors on the take-up of DDC across parties and party systems and test these with original post-election survey data from 27 parties (12 German, 15 French) and a new purpose-built DDC campaign index. We find that although DDC use is limited in both systems, uptake is responsive to a combination of the regulatory environment and parties’ prior campaign practices. Contrary to normalisation theory, minor parties with a ‘netroots’ base and newer digital ‘natives’ engage more in DDC than the ‘legacy’ major parties.


What Drives DDC – Manuscript

What Drives DDC – Appendix

Horses for Courses? Comparing the value of Twitter and survey data as a measure of issue salience and most important issiue (MII) in an election

Esmeralda Bon

Abstract

Debates about the value of social media versus survey data for measuring public opinion have intensified as usage of the former has spread and increasing problems with the latter have surfaced. To measure the salience of policy issues during an election campaign, surveys which include MII or MIP questions are typically seen as the gold standard. However, in contrast to the survey, social media data can provide a dynamic impression of the issues which gain and lose attention over time. In this paper, we compare Twitter and survey data as issue salience measures in the 2020 US presidential election campaign. We ask three questions: (1) To what extent do these data produce similar findings about issue salience? (2) How does this (dis)similarity affect our conclusions about what issues mattered? and (3) what do these findings say about the value of these data for measuring issue salience? We find that while there is some overlap in the range of salient issues identified by both data sets, the two sources lead to different conclusions about the decisiveness of these issues. The survey data suggests that the election outcome centered on the issues of healthcare, the economy and the coronavirus pandemic and that issues like social security and immigration were also important. In contrast, the latter two issues are not salient in the Twitter data. The Twitter data suggests that law and order and education were more important, instead, and shows that postal voting became a highly salient issue later in the campaign. Our evidence does not permit us to rule definitively in favor of one data source over the other. Instead, we conclude that one should focus on the relative value of each for measuring particular aspects of public opinion.

Horses for Courses – Manuscript

Taking Back Control… For Whom? Identifying the primary drivers behind the new UK Data Protection and Digital Information Bill

Luke, S., & Gibson, R. Taking Back Control… For Whom? Identifying the primary drivers behind the new UK Data Protection and Digital Information Bill

Abstract

The automatic lapse of EU legislation in December 2023 initiated development of a new Data Protection and Digital Information Bill designed to replace the 2018 EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). While the stated aim of the new bill is to update and simplify current data protection provisions and remove unnecessary burdens of compliance for UK organizations, critics contend it weakens the current law in several major ways. Notably it widens the range and purposes of personal data processing that can legitimately be undertaken by parties and other actors in the ‘public interest’. We examine these arguments, focusing particularly on two inter-related questions. First, to what extent does the new bill weaken GDPR, particularly within the electoral context? Second, if GDPR is being diluted, what is motivating these changes? We theorize five core ‘drivers’ that lie behind the recent changes to GDPR – strategic electoral gain, partisan or ideological principle and cultural norms. Using a range of primary and secondary elite and public opinion data sources we critically assess these arguments. Specifically we draw on EU and UK parliamentary debates, party manifestos and politicians’ statements from press reports since the passage of the 1988 UK Data Protection Act, and original public opinion data measuring UK voter preferences for the regulation of personal data use in campaigns. We use our findings to draw conclusions as to which of the three explanations is most credible in accounting for the recent regulatory changes and what this means for voter privacy in both the immediate and longer-term electoral context.

Taking Back Control For Whom – Manuscript

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