New World Disorder ….. & what to do next:

April 8th, 1400 BST:

in a world of disruption and conflict, how to manage our common climate?  can a next generation ‘Foresight 3.0’ enable the ‘collective climatic intelligence’? – (the communication, learning, innovation and co-production between all stakeholders). At the COP26 we started the ‘climate-wise’ reality-test game – www.manchester.ac.uk/synergistics/climate-wise/ – but recent events have raised new & powerful ‘threat multipliers’ for international cooperation. So what can we bring from future studies & systems thinking??

  • Up to now we worked on the ‘climate-wise game’ – how to make money / power from climate policy / or from blocking climate policy? Now the Russian invasion of Ukraine highlights many systemic tensions, contradictions, disruptions & tipping points –
  • There is potential to escalate all the way to WWIII – and to destroy / degrade international cooperation on energy & climate policy.
  • At the centre is the energy question – as EU is hooked on Russian oil & gas – can we kick the habit in time / find alternative suppliers??
  • So our common global climate future now depends on a few throws of the dice, in short term political & economic tactics…
  • Longer term we have to talk about rehabilitation of a national psychosis & rebuilding a global community

The scenario picture shows the landscape –

  • Global political breakdown = climate breakdown
  • Local war = EU refugee crisis = African food crisis
  • Local ceasefire = frozen tension = energy wars
  • Global détente = potential for climate policy with rehab of Russia – (just emerging and needing much cultivation).  

What can foresight do?  Longer range future studies are maybe not so relevant just now.  Maybe the value of foresight here is not so much longer range futures… but insights on the nature of the chaos & disruption. Then we can look for the points of maximum leverage in a free flowing future… This session is arranged at short notice in the current situation ‘new world disorder’…

Panellists: Ian Miles, Isabel Rimanoczy, Dexter Docherty, Joe Ravetz (chair)

If you would like to make a short presentation contact joe.ravetz@manchester.ac.uk

To register –  https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/climate-wise-new-world-disorder-tickets-313244581977

Background – Climate-wise program of the Laboratory for collective intelligence 

Previous session briefing – Climate-wise toolkit – briefing paper 1 – Jan 2021 & follow up – Climate-wise – follow up notes – 11-02-22

For the theory of cognitive systems, the cartoon guide to practice, and the bridges between, see the source text Deeper-City: Collective-Intelligence-and-the-Pathways-from-Smart-to-Wise